F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                         Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 31^st August, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   28.08.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 28.08.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES, Ministry of Agriculture.  A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.  

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  27^th August, 2006

·        Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( >25 cms) occurred over Orissa and Chhattisgarh during first half of the week, over East Madhya Pradesh, East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam during many days of the week.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall also occurred over South Rajasthan, Gujarat and Konkan & Goa during first half of the week and over Southwest Rajasthan on 21^st and  22^nd Aug, 06.  The intensity of the rainfall over these areas decreased thereafter.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall also occurred over J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal and scattered rainfall occurred over Punjab, Haryana, West UP, West MP and rest of the Rajasthan during some days.

·        Light to moderate rainfall occurred at a few places over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Coastal AP, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, TN & Pondicherry.  Rainfall was subdued over remaining parts of the country.

·         All India area weighted rainfall for the week (17^th August -  23^rd August, 2006) was below normal by 2% (Actual 56.6 mm, Normal 58.0  mm). Rainfall was[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

 Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  23^rd August, 2006)

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 1% (Actual 654.8 mm  Normal 660.2 mm) Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st June to  23^rd Aug., 06  in four regions of the country [2]

FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 28^th AUGUST TO 0830 HRS.OF 31^st AUGUST, 2006)

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over Orissa and at many places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh during 29-31 August, 2006.  Subsequently the rainfall is likely to shift to Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is also likely over, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Northeastern States, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during 29-31 August, 2006.  Scattered rainfall is also likely over Northeastern States and rest Andhra Pradesh.

·        Isolated light to moderate rainfall is likely over the remaining parts of the country.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (28^th August  -  02^nd September, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the entire region except West U.P. where scattered rains are likely during 30^th Aug.  – 01^st September , 2006.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand on 29^th  & 30^th Aug, 06.  Bihar and East UP is likely to experience scattered to fairly widespread rainfall during 29^th &  31^st Aug, 06.  Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over NE States during 28-31 August, 2006.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh during 29^th – 31^st Aug, 2006.  Scattered to fairly widespread rains is expected over Vidarbha during the week.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall  on 29^th & 30^th Aug, 06.  Rainfall activities over Telangana and Karnataka are likely to increase after 29^th Aug, 06.  Kerala is likely to experience scattered rains.  Isolated rainfall is likely over Rayalseema and Tamil Nadu during the week.

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Ongoing fairly widespread rainfall activities over Konkan & Goa is likely to reduce by 29^th August, 2006 and enhance thereafter.  Scattered rainfall over Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra is likely to increase in 28-31 August, 2006. Rainfall activity over Rajasthan and Gujarat may increase after 28-31 August, 2006.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Orissa & Gangetic West Bengal during next 48 hrs.  Subsequently rainfall activity likely to increase with  heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over these regions.  Isolated heavy to very falls are also likely over Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand from 29^th August, 2006 onwards.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        In Northeast region drought like situation is prevailing, farmers are advised to sow desame, green gram and black gram in uplands and sowing of these crops should be completed within mid of September.

·        As Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh received deficient rainfall during previous week, farmers are advised to provide irrigation to paddy, maize and vegetables field.

·        In Tamil Nadu region as the rains are very less and also delayed, dry land farmers are advised for short duration varieties of sorghum and pulse crop.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 25.08.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 109.43  BCM from 98.50 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 11.30 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 32.67 BCM.

Table – 2: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There were 71 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Table – 4: Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  18.08.2006)

Source: NHB data

      It is generally expected that with more arrival prices would fall that is, theory of inverse relationship exists between arrivals and prices.  However, from the above table it can be seen that during 2006 this phenomenon is observed in case of Tomato only.  Also, comparing the prices and arrivals during the corresponding weeks in the years 2004 and 2005, it is observed that the theory of inverse relationship between arrivals and prices is observed in case of Potato and Tomato only.

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 12.08.2006 increased by 0.10 percentage points to 4.92% from the previous week’s level of 4.82%. The WPI of Agriculture Commodities rose by 0.53% over the week. The WPI of foodgrains rose by 0.15% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Wheat by (0.39%), Bajra by (0.27%), Gram by (0.47%), Urad by (0.31%) and Arhar by (0.23%). The WPI of other food items declined: Barley by (0.46%), Maize by (0.09%), Masur (1.34%) and Moong by (0.23%).  The WPI for Sugar increased by 0.12%.   The inflation rate was 3.67% during the corresponding period last year.  

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Sugar, Mustard oil, Milk, Onion, remained at the same level as they were last week . Rise in prices was noted in Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%), Atta (Re. 1.00 Per kg, 9.1%), Vanaspati (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.9%), Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.5%),  Tea (Loose) (50 paise per kg, 0.5%), Gram dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 6.3%) and Groundnut oil (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 2.3%). Fall in prices was noted in  Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -7.1), Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -8.3%) and Tomato (Rs. 7.00 per kg -28.0%).

As compared to the last year, price of Mustard oil has remained steady. Increase in prices of Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 57.4%),  Gram Dal (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 36.0%), Wheat ((Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%), Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 15.8%), Vanaspati (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 14.6%), Potato (50 paise per kg, 4.3%), Sugar (50 paise per kg, 2.4%)  and Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.5%) and decrease in prices of Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, -9.1%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -7.1%) and Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, -5.3%) are noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 15^th August, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Locust Situation in India:

Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria. F)

Locust Warning organization teams surveyed the locust prone areas of Scheduled Desert Area (SDA) of Rajasthan and Gujarat States.  No Desert locust activity was reported and India continued to be free from any desert locust activity.  Ecological conditions are favourable for locust breeding.   Small scale locust breeding along the Indo-Pak border is expected during the remaining portion of August, 2006 as ecological conditions in the border areas are becoming favourable due to recent rain fall in Scheduled Desert Area (SDA) of Rajasthan.

Migratory Locust (Locusta migratoria)

      Director of Agriculture, Srinagar (Jammu & Kashmir) reported presence of locust infestation in the areas of districts Kargil and Leh (Ladakh) on 10.08.2006.  A team of experts comprising Deputy Director (Locust Control) and five other officers / officials was deputed to the infested areas for taking stock of the situation on 11^th August, 06.  The team surveyed the infested areas of Zanskar sub-division in district Kargil and reported the presence of countless population of Migratory locusts.  A total of 3000 ha. area was surveyed out of which

2300 ha was cropped area and 700 ha was non cropped area.  Out of the 2300 ha only 1200 ha was found infested  with the population of migratory Locust.  Ground control operations by various Central and State sub-division of district Kargil have been undertaken.  As on 21^st August, 2006 an area of 990 ha has been treated by using Chloropyriphos.  An area of about 5000 ha has also been reported infested with  migratory locusts in Nyoma – Changtang areas of district Leh.  Control operations have been initiated by deputing teams to the infested areas.  Control operations are in progress.

Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 7: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed   

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 28.08.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Table – 9:Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 28.08. 06(lakh tonnes)

Table – 10:Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

 Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  28.08.2006.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                     Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S. L. Bhat                           JS (Crops, TMOP & Seeds)

2.         Dr H.C. Gautam                         Addl. Commissioner

3.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

6.         Shri D.K. Roy                            Under Secretary (INM)

7.         Shri C. S. Mathod                      Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

I.M.D.

8.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

9.         Dr. J.V. Singh                            P.S.O. (SCD)

C.W.C

10.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

11.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

12.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

P.I.B.

13.        Shri A.M. Thomas                      Sr. Media & Communication Officer

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

14.        Shri S. K. Kaushik                     Asstt. Director (FM)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

15.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

16.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy. Director

N.C.F.C.

17.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

18.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Central Ground Water Board, Deptt. of Food & PD, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (TPB) & Adviser (ANB) and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group in future